Saturday, July 14, 2007

Two Bad Polls for the Conservatives

Two polls are out tonight which are not good news for the Conservatives. At all. Both are by ICM and both show a seven point Labour lead. The News of the World poll shows a vote split of 35-28-13, while the Sunday Telegraph figures are 40-33-19. The ICM NOTW poll also showed that 53% of people felt Gordon Brown was best equipped to lead Britain, compared to 27% for David Cameron. Earlier this year, ICM gave the Tory leader a five-point lead over Mr Brown on their personal ratings.

However, the Sunday Telegraph poll gave some encouragement to Cameron, with strong support for his stance on the importance of marriage. Some 70% of voters felt it was better for parents to be married. Forty nine per cent backed plans for giving tax incentives for marriage, with 44% against.

Footnote: Isn't it bizarre that two polls from the same polling organisation (oth with 1,0003 respondents) give different figures? Perhaps someone at PoliticalBetting.com could explain.

UPDATE: Ian Kirby from the NOTW explains that it was a shared poll with the Sun Tel. He says: "In response to your query about different results, Paddy did a state of the parties question. We asked "which party do you feel warmest too?" (to gauge potential floating voters) and crossed it with how did you vote in the last election".

85 comments:

Anonymous said...

Watch the right wing sharpen its knives for Cameron now,' The quiet man is here to stay and he's turning up the vol....aaaaah'

Dave Cole said...

Re your footnote, not necessarily as it depends on how answers were weighted. They could have both used exactly the same people, but have asked how likely people were to vote and give more weight to those who said that they were more likely to vote. Equally, they could have been preferring swing voters etc. etc..

As I said, not necessarily strange, but you'd have to look at the polling methodology. The usual disclaimer applies to polls - it's no good taking someone's heart rate if they've just run up the stairs - how much of this is the Brown effect>

Anonymous said...

If these polls are right, the pressure wil grow and grow. Can you imagine what the rightwing press particularly the triumvirate, Heffer/Hitchens/Phillips are going to make of these polls? Dave’s name will be rubbished. The Right have been waiting for a signal, to make their move, this is what they’ve been waiting for. Dave’s justification for his reforms has been, ‘Look at the polls we are ahead, first time for years’ once he can’t say that, what does he say. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again, you cannot marry the two wings of the Tory party, ‘Labour hasn’t won three general elections because it didn’t split, it has won three general election ‘cos it did’ Time to offer the voters a real right of centre political party, free of its past.

Ralph said...

So since ICM's last poll the Tories are down two or seven points, Labour is the down two or up three, and the Lib Dems are down 4.

Anonymous said...

Iain,

Are you sure the Sunday Telegraph figures for the Libdems you have posted are wrong?

Conhome is saying they are:

Lab 40%
Con 33%
Libdem 19%

Anonymous said...

I think things are certainly tougher now than for a while and there's no doubt that there are growing doubts about Cameron, but I find it virtually impossible to believe the Tory vote is at 28 per cent. Even allowing for a substantial Gordon Brown "bounce", if Tory support had tanked that much I'm pretty sure we'd at least be getting some impression of that in conversation and down the pub - and I'm not, at least. Furthermore, even allowing for the (debatable) power of good individual candidates to render campaigns unrepresentative, it's fairly hard to reconcile those sort of poll numbers with the predicted by-election results.

Anonymous said...

The News of the World figures look very odd: 35+28+13 = 76. Do you really think others are on 24%. I think it's much more likely that the report has forgotten to exclude the don't knows or something like that.

Hughes Views said...

Interesting difference between the support Gordon Brown is getting now vs. the hypothetical support that pollsters were predicting only a few months ago. Never trust the answers to hypothetical questions.

As you've said many times the polls are likely to be a bit strange at least until the autumn but it doesn't look great for DC especially if things don't pick up for him before the party conferences. I think he may have been rumbled...

Newmania said...

WE all kew this was coming , there is a long way to go and Brown was bound to bounce .I don`t believe it myself and we`ll wait to see what the next polls say.

( I don`t know anyone who is impressed by Brown ?)

Anonymous said...

I'm quite impressed by Brown- as far as Tory can be impressed by a Christian socialist !

Anonymous said...

How did you do on your Selection today Iain.

Anonymous said...

Anon at 8.54 pm ...

I'm impressed with Brown, and so's my wife.

Seriously. He's got gravitas by the bucketload.

Cameron just looks a complete pillock the more each new dawn arrives, I'm afraid. Sad really as I made money on him becoming leader. But he's been rumbled: all style and no substance. I know loads of non-political affiliates and they just laugh when Cameron is mentioned. When that happens it's time to pack your bags.

Iain Dale said...

Anonymous 8.58? What are you talking about?

Anonymous said...

Right wing Conservatives and the Hospital Consultants will be talking about making a move now that Cameron has been rumbled. Can you imagine the damage to us Tories if two Tories stood in a Seat.

Bob Piper said...

For the first time ever I think I agree with Newmania. I said the polls were irrelevant when Cameron had a 10 point lead... and they are equally irrelevant now. They exist to inform those in the political bubble, and anyone who has ever canvassed knows they are nonsense.

You would hardly expect me to back Cameron, but the fact is, without him, the Tories are toast. The world has moved on since the old witch of Finchley's days, and at least Cameron realises that a general who fights a war on the tactics of their last known victory is destined to fail.

If the Conservatives ditch Cameron, Gordon Brown would definitely go for a snap election... and you had better be prepared to kiss your arse goodbye for another 4/5 years.

Anonymous said...

Shshhhhh Bob. Don't tell them.

You're right, but on the other hand I do think Labour will win a 100 seat majority, in which case the Tories will be left scratching their heads once again.

I DO think it's important to have someone at the top who believes in the basics of conservative ideals about the free market and low taxes. Cameron is much too soft-woolly-left to work for the Tories. It just ISN'T all about image. You have to have some substance behind it, and I'm afraid Cameron doesn't seem to.

The Military Wing Of The BBC said...

Great Britain needs another Dowding not another Blair.

Anonymous said...

I have voted Tory for decades. But why should I vote for a leader with no fire in his belly?

We shall quit the EPP! (Er.. in the fullness of time).

We shall build no more grammar schools! (Er .. subject, of course, to er ... circumstances)

We believe in marriage! (Not that we've anything against single mothers, of course, or indeed unmarried journalists, or indeed ... anyone.)

Aaaaaaaaaaaagh!

Anonymous said...

The only count that matters is the vote count in the next GE ,the rest is guesswork ,it's when is the next GE going to happen ,the three main parties appear to be winding up the hustings,so it could be soon then it could be later,for the conservatives the only knives that should be sharpened should have Brown's name on them not Cameron's ,the time to fight is after winning not before.

Anonymous said...

Sharpening the knives will be fruitless. If the Cons aren't going to win with Cammy at the next election, they're not going to win with anyone else instead.

If you are already conceding defeat to Brown, you have two choices. Lose with dignity by showing loyalty and sticking with Cameron. Alternatively lose without dignity by knifing him and perpetuating the image that the Conservative party is too busy tearing itself apart to be an effective vehicle for government.

Andrew Ian Dodge said...

Well I am sure the IDS beer tax did not necessarily help matters much. When will they learn? I think this type of polling ensures that Brown will go for an autumn election.

Anonymous said...

Well, it's certainly odd, since we have youngsters joining the Party locally in significant numbers for the first time in years, and long-time Labour volunteers putting it in writing that they'll be voting for our Cons MP next time 'cos they're so fed up with Labour.

Anonymous said...

what are we doing??
i went onto the telegraph web page to look at the poll and what do i see but
"The clear evidence of a stronger than expected "Brown bounce" following the new Prime Minister's arrival at No 10 comes amid further bad news for the Tories as it can be revealed that their candidate in Thursday's Ealing Southall by-election donated £4,800 to Labour only last month."
will the last conservative left please turn out the light.

Anonymous said...

Public opinion is certainly volatile with Brown's takeover, but that 35/28/13 poll is crap. Lib Dems too low, Conservatives below established 'floor' of low 30's, others way way way too high.

Tapestry said...

For these figures to be correct, a cataclysmic collape must have happened to 'others' = Greens, UKIP, BNP and the Nationals.

The Sunday Tel Poll leaves them 8% 100- (40+33+19). They were getting 16% two weeks ago.

Seems a spurious poll calculated to boost Gordon Brown's standing, and take pressure off the EU and its lack of referednum.

Tapestry said...

As Mark Pack shows, in the NOTW one, others are on 24%. There is something very odd about these two polls. Discard. It's Gordon getting desperate.

Anonymous said...

so reference anonymous 10:33pm
Its all gone lits up!

Anonymous said...

We need to wait for fuller details of the Telegraph and News of the World polls.

We can't really comment sensibly until we know:

- what the questions were

- how many Don't Knows

Anonymous said...

it doesnt matter what questions were asked they are now gaining momentum and joe public will jump on the badwagon, we have to sort this mess out now.

Anonymous said...

all this and Tony Lit, "the lifelong Conservative", recently attended a Labout fundraising event, donated 4800 pounds to the party and had piccie taken with Tony Blair. Oh dear oh dear oh dear.

Johnny Norfolk said...

The problem is that Cameron is to left wing. Unless the Tories are seen as a party of the right they will not win a general election.

Cameron needs to stop talking about wishy washy policy and tell the country about imigration have far less and we dont need all these extra proposed houses.

As for leaving the Health service to the so called professionals he is just avoiding the issue.

It just wont do.

No wonder he is down on the polls

Anonymous said...

Cameron's being doing a lot better since Grammarsgate. Leave him alone.

Anonymous said...

Iain: when you posted this, you must have seen the story that "Conservative" candidate Tony Lit donated £4,800 to the Labour party only a few days before being selected as the "Conservative" candidate. Why didn't you mention it?

Also, what odds would I get on Lit winning, and then crossing the floor to join the Labour party?

Anonymous said...

LABOUR LANDSLIDE!!!!!!!!

These polls translate into Labour majorities of 114 or 124.

It's all over now, baby blues!

2br02b said...

I've said it before, and I'll say it again:

In DC the Tory Party has selected the ideal candidate for the last election.

But the TB touchy-feely style of of vacuous sound-bite politics has been done to death now, and the time has come for a PM with gravitas, not a joke-a-minute, student-politics-scorer-of-cheap-debating-points empty vessel. We've had that for ten years and the last thing that will succeed today is an "Heir to Blair". I fear these are the words of his that will haunt DC more than any others in the Tory drubbing at the next GE.

I also suspect that yes, there was a Tory bounce when DC became Leader, but DC has less to do with that than a sort of TB "anti-bounce". Part of the evidence for that can be found in the recent local government election results. Although presented as a swing to the Tories over last year locals, it was, it terms of votes cast, no such thing: there had in truth been no improvement at all.

Now TB has gone--also attached to him was most of the perceived blame for the Iraq disaster of course. In GB we have a PM who comes across as serious, competent, prudent and trustworthy, and who will almost exactly fit in with the hopes and expectations of today's electorate.

You may say that this is perception; it's not the real GB.

Perhaps you are right, but I don't think so--or at least, not enough to matter. For instance, GB may have been a socialist once, but he's not one now and to describe him as one as some around here do is, I suspect, just to dig a deeper hole for the Tory Party.

The fundamental problem for us now is that the old divisions between right and left no longer have much, if any, meaning any more. Objectively, the Labour Party could be said, on balance (there are individual policy exceptions of course) to be rather to the right of DC's Tory Party, and the LibDems are to the left of both other main parties. But even that is a delusional oversimplification. Left-Right is now meaningless.

What should the Tory Party do?

I think it's too late to turn DC into a serious political figure (if that were ever possible) and it's too late to ditch him before the next GE--the internal battle that would need would be too tempting for GB and a snap election during such a Tory battle would decimate the party even more than otherwise.

No, we are going to have to grit our teeth and take the coming GE disaster on the chin. Then, assuming there are enough Tory MPs left to matter, replace the grinning Eton PR man with a serious politician.

But who?

Ted Foan said...

I am no psephologist (unlike Antony King who would love to see the end of the Conservatives) but it seems to me that Brown has had a lot of media exposure in the last few weeks and many opportunities to project himself as different to Blair. He's said all the right things to give the perception that he is a steady pair of hands.

But he has not yet been seriously challenged about his record over the last ten years. The Conservatives have been concentrating on presenting the reports of their various commissions with a timetable that will take them into the autumn. No doubt it will all be worthy stuff but not easy to digest or present in the media without the usual instant rubbishing by New (Gordon's) Labour.

Iain was right on BBC News 24 last night to suggest that Cameron and Co need to attack on a selected few fronts over the summer - don't ask me what they should be!

What we don't need is dissent in the ranks while the main battle plan is being put into place. Steady the Buffs!

Anonymous said...

There is some incredibly complacent comment on this thread.

Cameron needs to be about 20 points ahead in mid-term to stand a chance at the next GE.

These polls are disastrous for Cameron.

Spin wont win!!

Anonymous said...

Dodgy poll, has to be.

Anonymous said...

The sample size is way too small for this poll to have any meaning.

But the mood is certainly one of general disappointment at some of the crackpot ideas of the Tories as of late.

Anonymous said...

"The sample size is way too small for this poll to have any meaning."

most polls have a sample of around 1000, as does this poll.

"But he has not yet been seriously challenged about his record over the last ten years"

in fact Brown has been 'attacked' constantly for almost two years.It hasn't worked.The Tories assumed it had worked when Cameron was well ahead on the hypothetical 'who will make the best PM question'.Only an idiot thought that lead would last when Brown became PM.

As for Iain giving strategy advice.I'm even more confident of Labour winning the next election..

Incidentally,Tony Lit giving money to Labour is being discussed on the Beeb right now.I get the grassroots are delighted...

Anonymous said...

I have to say, the last two policy announcement; Education (cue a massive Grammar School arguement)and Socal Justice (cue a massive arguement about extra alcohol taxes)have been a disaster.

The best Tory policy statement of the last few months was from the LibDems on future taxation.

Even the decisoion to get Boris to run for London Mayor does not seem to have been a DC initiative.

Come on get your act together! I told a Tory door step canvasser at the last election that although I was a natural Tory voter I did not feel the Tory party was giving floating voters anything tangible to vote for and I still feel the same.

Ned said...

IDS's extensive , thoroughly good report has been whittled down by Labourites as a single issue bribe for marriage...in short the whole has been trashed. GB will pick out the Tax inequalities & use to his advantage....the Tories will be left with the bare bones.... & a call for Policies.


Time to get Nasty & real Dave, bang on about England having a Scottish PM thrust on the electorate without mandate & a constituency in his fiefdom..that's the only language the Labour Machine understand!...& lets consider, Would Scotland allow an English First Minister...with a constituency down here!

Newmania said...

in fact Brown has been 'attacked' constantly for almost two years.It hasn't worked

Far away in another paralell universe this may be true , but not here.Blair has been atacked on Brown`s record , thats the problem numbskull.

There is no doubt in my mind that Cameron is doing a great job . Brown has tribes of hagiographers working day and night at the BBC and they have been on overtime this last month. In addition the economy has performed well over ten years despite the Labour Party are perversely they are credited with this . It was always going to be very hard to dislodge a Party who have presided over a period of relative calm and affluence as well as being utterly committed to power at all costs whatever lie must be told . ..and they will say anything.
I always think the thing to do is to play tomorrow not the next year and the first thing that all Conservatives can do is to stop treating politics like a school debate decide who they dislike least and start advocating . We have the product what we do now is sell it , not sit around whining about a few private peccadilloes that are not on the menu .In two Party Politics discipline is what wins elections . New labour project have excluded their own left from public debate They monitor every snippet for propaganda value . WE cannot go on being a come as you are soirée confronted with ranks of dead eyed storm troopers
Perhaps it will take two elections as it did for the Labour Party during the Major years , perhaps it will take a disaster , it will come , they have no idea what they are doing. The tectonic plates are shifting on Europe and the break up of the Union there are opportunities everywhere but if Conservatives and those of the right are going to behave like scabs handing out treat to the opposition then we might as well give up. When are the bleaters and swivel eyed anachronistic show boaters going to realise , this Party is no longer the natural Party of Government and if it going to be it has to include many who currently vote Liberal or have liberal views.

I begin to despise those, many of whom, ,lets face it , are old and are conducting a hobby having passed through peak earning to the detriment of many natural Conservatives who will be consigned to a period of far left Brownite blood sucking betrayal . Have you seen how far to the left this government has moved in ten years and do you imagine this process will stop ? We are on our way to be a Euro social model Brussels dependency with England broken up and a permanent Left centre coalition pulling the strings via PR . WE are headed towards the end of the country in any recognisable form and every day new Labour immigrant voters flood into the Cities and Towns encouraged quite deliberately by the “National Government”.
Brown cannot be allowed to win and at the very least it is essential to gain at least 265 seats to block Brown`s attempt to vote himself an electoral system that will make himself invulnerable

What about asking “… not what your Party can do for you , but what you can do for the Party “If you seriously think Brown is a better idea then continue to undermine Cameron.

Anonymous said...

Thanks, Newmania, for writing my thoughts exactly.

Anonymous said...

"In addition the economy has performed well over ten years despite the Labour Party are perversely they are credited with this "

Oh that'd be a first.The actual goverment being credited with the running of the economy.Perhaps the electorate aren't as daft as the Tories think they are.

"There is no doubt in my mind that Cameron is doing a great jobW

I think he's doing a great job too.He's invested all his energy in PR and allowed himself to be outflanked by the Lib Dems on tax without realising that the media would be far more interested in Brown's ideas once he became PM.Cameron has wasted 18 months..

Indeed, if Ealing goes badly and the polls continue to falter expect a 'Get Cameron out' campaign from Tory grassroots to build momentum...The Tories are destined to lose the next election, the only question is will it be a defeat or a disaster..

Anonymous said...

how strange! These polls appear to be bogus. Why are both organisations claiming they are different polls when they are a shared poll. Surely, the tight-fisted papers should admit that they are running a SHARED poll. Not diff

Anonymous said...

Iain, why are you letting the Screws get away with claiming a separate poll? It's not two bad polls for the Tories - it's one bad poll which has been split two ways! Just beccause Iain Kirby and his chum on the Sunday Telegraph are too mean to pay for separate polls doesn't mean we and their dead-tree readers have to be duped.

Anonymous said...

Dave’s justification for his reforms has been, ‘Look at the polls we are ahead, first time for years’

He set the criteria by which he wanted to be judged.....silly really, but that was his error

Anonymous said...

We are on our way to be a Euro social model Brussels dependency with England broken up and a permanent Left centre coalition pulling the strings via PR

I think that is inevitable with London being such a centre of gravity for political parties - it has basically abandoned the rest of the country for the metropolis.

Anonymous said...

Polls mean absolutely nothing whatever trends,leads etc people latch on to. The electorate is volatile and fickle.They support Labour on some matters and Conservatives on others. Do they prefer Brown as PM or do they prefer Cameron ? Do they trust Labour or Conservatives ? No one will know until election night whenever that is so to get worked up about polls is absolutely pointless. At this stage neither Labour or Conservatives can definitely say one way or the other what the outcome of a future general Election will be. It's all just Spin and as to Tony Lit supporting or not supporting Labour that won't ultimately decide Ealing either it's whether people want to give Gordon/Labour a kicking or not(personally I think probably not at this stage).Ultimately it's not whether Cameron wins an election but rather if Gordon loses it.

Anonymous said...

Josh - 10.07pm.
"Lose without dignity by knifing him"(Cameron). The Tory Party, of which I have been a member for most of my life, lost every single vestige of its dignity when it knifed Margaret Hilda in 1990. It will never get it back. Once an organisation of any kind behaves like that - loyalty within that organisation is dead and eventually so is the organisation, as the history of the Tory Party has amply demonstrated over the last 17 years. Cameron is a Social Democrat and he will have to lose the next Election before the Centre Right of Traditional Toryism can rise again, stop making the Party fashionable and start making it principled.

James Higham said...

It is now time for the Conservatives to admit they made a mistake, dump Cameron and put in the brightest talent available at the closest in age to Cameron as possible.

Alternatively, drafting in from outside the hidebound pre-selection procedures.

Tapestry said...

Pointyhead, it wasn't a voting intentions poll. It was a 'survey' which has been interpreted with different results by two news channels, clearly desperate to please Gordon, who's trying to keep his pathetic bounce from flopping.

NOTW has others on 25%. Sunday Tel using the same survey returns has them on 8%. Smell a rat?

2br02b said...

Thank you, Newmania, for your epistle from the Plant Zorg.

Blair has been atacked on Brown`s record.

Meanwhile back here on Earth, Blair and Brown have been attacked on Blair's record, and our mistake as Tories has been to assume that Brown is just a humourless clone of Blair. He is not; as I fear we are just starting to find our, he is going to be a far more formidable opponent that Blair could ever be.

There is no doubt in my mind that Cameron is doing a great job

For whom? The Labour Party?

In addition the economy has performed well over ten years despite the Labour Party are perversely they are credited with this

If the economy has been performing well for 10 years, this cannot possible be despite the party in power. It's a well-recognised fact that the "hangover effect" on an economy of old policies that have been changed is two years maximum. So at the very least, I'm afraid that for a minimum of 8 years, the success of the economy has to be credited to Labour in general and Brown in particular.

It was always going to be very hard to dislodge a Party who have presided over a period of relative calm and affluence...

Read "impossible" for "very hard".

...as well as being utterly committed to power at all costs

Sounds like the traditional Tory attitude.

We have the product what we do now is sell it

Unfortunately, what we actually have here is a last-year-model salesman and no sellable products. (Golden rule in business: never put a salesman in charge of a company that lives on innovative products--that is to say, policies in this case.)

Perhaps it will take two elections as it did for the Labour Party during the Major years , perhaps it will take a disaster , it will come , they have no idea what they are doing.

If over the last 15 years or so we have had a Labour Party that has no idea what they are doing, perhaps it's time to get ourselves a Tory Party that has no idea what it's doing in the same way... Unfortunately we seem to have one that really has no idea what it's doing.

The tectonic plates are shifting on Europe and the break up of the Union there are opportunities everywhere

More delusions here. The EU is not breaking up, nor will it be likely to in the near future. Hate or love it, but learn to live with it: it's not going to go away. I suspect that a Tory Party that can't digest this objective fact is not ever going to be win a GE.

Have you seen how far to the left this government has moved in ten years

No, I've seen how far this government has moved to the right--and that's the heart of the Tory problem.

...a permanent Left centre coalition pulling the strings via PR .

Why would Labour, which increasingly looks like the natural party of government with a typical GE majority of 100+ seats* want to even consider PR, or a coalition with the LibDems or any one else for that matter?

*If, as I rather expect, Labour wins next time with a 100+ majority, it will become increasingly likely that the 2005 result was due to special factors, in particular Iraq, and of course even then they really won pretty comfortably.

Brown cannot be allowed to win and at the very least it is essential to gain at least 265 seats to block Brown`s attempt to vote himself an electoral system that will make himself invulnerable

How are the winged pigs of Plant Zorg doing these days? And anyway, what's so magical about 265 seats?

What about asking “… not what your Party can do for you , but what you can do for the Party “

Around here slogans like this work better after you have gained absolute power, eg...

"Deutschland ist die Partie, Hitler ist die Partei, Hitler ist Deutschland!"

Still, it's interesting to be able to compare our situation here with what's happening on the other side of the universe.

[BTW, I would not normally comment on another's grammar or spelling--I know my own is far from perfect--but with respect here is one exception to that rule. Since you emigrated to Zorg, the concept of the "paragraph" has become increasingly popular back here as it makes long stretches of text much easier to read (g)]

Madasafish said...

Well all I can say is in Government you have to be organised, clear in your policies and alert.

Are the Conservatives that .. in Opposition.

Frankly after the Lit affair .. (and gramar schools etc).. they give the impression they are not fit to run a a pissup in a brewery.

I'm giving up: they appear a hopeless case.. There is NO WAY this lot are fit to win an election.. and no danger of them winning a General lLection...They make NuLab look competent!:-((

Geezer said...

Shows the power of broadcast news and especiall the Brownite BBC output. Without real support in the MSM, Cameron is finding it very difficult to make headway when Brown is being so heavily promoted. But, when the crap starts hitting the fan again with this government, Brown will slide again. Honeymoons only last so long. I think the Tory party is generally intelligent enough to know the difference. Getting rid of Cameron would be suicide. Apart from his centerist appeal, which they need, he's a good communicater (when he get's the opportnity) and likeable. The Conservatives would look like bastards if they turfed Cameron out on the strength of some dodgy, Brown honeymoon poles. That is what Labour want, they want a "right-winger" to replace him and push the Conservatives into the cross-hairs of the BBC news department. The Conservatives would get slaughtered by the Labour supporting media, as the "nasty party" who got rid of nice modernising Dave and that they are clearly just a bunch of old-fashioned blue-rinsers who are stuck in the 1950's. Cameron shoudl perhaps, try a little less hard to be the moderniser and stop needlessly winding-up the grass-roots, but the Tories would be mad to get rid of their best asset.

Anonymous said...

The NoW poll is is some ways worse for the Tories as it shows Labour still have a clear lead on party identification - ie any boost in Tory support under Cameron is very soft. Brown leads on who makes the best PM by more than 50% over Cameron's less than 30%. The poll may show some backing for Tory views on marraige but not for their tax proposals that stem from it.
Cameron's style over substance leadership is not built on firm foundations and is almost certainly bound to fail under the scrutiny of the media and the pressures from the majority Tory right wing.

Anonymous said...

Surely this is the peak of the Brown bounce.
Remember how often Callaghan outpolled Thatcher in the late 1970s and still lost?

Anonymous said...

"Surely this is the peak of the Brown bounce.
Remember how often Callaghan outpolled Thatcher in the late 1970s and still lost?"

Are you the same guy who a few days ago was saying that the Brown bounce had become a Brown blip?

Sooner or later you will have to wake up. Cameron has never been this far behind in the polls since taking over.

I'll tell what will happen soon, Cameron will start to head rightward in an attempt to shore up his core vote. It's what ever post-Major leader has done, and it's what Cameron is going to do. Stand by for a 100+ Labour majority again.

Anonymous said...

People just don't like Cameron. He doesn't stand for anything. He's a day late and a dollar short, as in stating he's the heir to Blair, yesterdays's fast-fading man from what seems like a far-off era.

He has a weak face and he acts weak. Wannabees are weak.

And now this Lit thing. Apparently he has given them enough money - I think it's over £5,000 altogether - to have to declare himself a contributor to the Labour Party. What a sleazeball! This is what happens when you are guided by political correctness and practice token politics.

Anonymous said...

In the May 2007 local elections Conservatives won 911 new council seats, Labour lost 505. Let's test these polls with a general election :-)

Anonymous said...

I wrote: ""The sample size is way too small for this poll to have any meaning."

Someone anonymously quipped:
"most polls have a sample of around 1000, as does this poll."

Just because they all use meaningless samples, it doesn't mean that the polls are right, it simply means they all are meaningless. :-D

There are a number of reasons for this, it's not only the sample size, but also who is asked, when and where. Small polls like that are good for entertainment in a paper or blog, but whatever you do, don't stake any money on them being correct ;)

Dr Blue said...

These seem odd results.

We're in an odd period of politics. We don't quite know why to hate Brown immediately. (Whereas we were clear we couldn't stand Blair, Mandelson, Campbell, Hewitt, Prescott, Blunkett, Granger from NPfIT et al)

Brown has got rid of a lot of Blair poison. Hence he's making new Labour look very much "under new management"

I think it's a bit smoke and mirrors myself, and if Labour policies start unravelling (as they will) then Tories will come back.

I think Cameron needs to be bolder, and make some clear enemies, and define himself against them. There's no real love for the Guardianistas, the Twaterati, the clipboarderati, the HSE inspectors and others who will flap as Cameron lays into them and their political correctness.

Anonymous said...

Hardly surprising if you look at what people are being asked to discuss on the new website "Stand Up Speak Up ". No mention of taxes,defence,Europe,immigration,its time our Londoncentric politicians hit the streets in the shires and found out what Britons really think, we feel abandoned.

Geezer said...

" verity said...
People just don't like Cameron."


Utter nonsense! Cameron is seen as a very likeable person, by the wider electorate, it is his main strength. Idiot right-wingers, "don't like him" Labour astro-turfer "don't like him"
Joe Bloggs elector, does like him. Caustic right-wingers, are not likeable!

Anonymous said...

DrBlue says Cameron needs to stand up and make some enemies - but he cannot. He is one of them. He believes in affirmative action and tokenism in politics. There's not a breath of air between him and Trevor Phillips.

He loves the NHS because he gets all that high profile treatment for his disabled kid free on it, so to him it looks good. He hasn't the vaguest interest in immigration, which worries every indigenous Briton, but frets about "man made climate change", which every Briton, indigenous and otherwise, knows is a crock that's already past its sell-by date. He doesn't understand that the teaching "profession" in state schools has been taken over by the Trots and children are intentionally being dumbed down to be obedient drones.

Did he really think he was making a statement people wouldn't laugh at when he went out and bought a parka, rented a sled and a couple of huskies and flew to Norway? I mean, the man is a fool. He's either insulting us because he assumes we aren't very intelligent, or he's sincere, which is even worse.

David Cameron is a very bizarre choice to lead a once-great party.

Anonymous said...

These polls are no surprise to me. When Dave said that Brown should "bring it on" I wrote here that he should be careful what he wishes for.

Also here I said that the polls showing Labour support would dip under Brown were nonsense. Labour voters are so delighted to he rid of the nauseating Tony Blair that theit faith is now renewed.
The next General election will arrive before the voters discover who Brown really is.

He has just made some probably empty promises about affordable housing but NuLabour realised long ago that it was necessary to do anything - it was enough to announce it. Immediately beforehand he will announce a rapid withdrawal from Iraq. David Cameron has no ammunition to meet these with. He and his advisors have strayed pretty far from bread and butter politics in an effort to gain LibDem votes but those are only about one-sixth of the voters. The remaining five-sixths is what will count. Having Heseltine and Tebbitt rattling their sabres doesn't help - in fact Heseltine has damaged the Conservative party more than John Major ever did.

Cameron has no policy on the Thirty Year War in Afghanistan & Iraq, no policy on education except to follow Blair's academies and no answer to the riddle of tighter borders without ID cards [not a difficult one].

Osborne has few chances in Parliament but he should be writing and talking about the size of government borrowings.

The realignment of Conservative MEPs has not occurred although it was a Cameron promise when campaigning against Davis. I am not sure whether we have any identifiable EU policy at all.

Long before the knots have been worked out of the policy commission reports the GE will be on us.

None of this gives me pleasure as I feel that Cameron had it made but may have squandered his chances by unleashing half-baked spokesmen to stake out tether goat policies.

Calls for IDs or Hague to come back are silly. They had their chances and they failed utterly. The Conservative path back to power will come through Cameron or not all for another 6 years or so. It is time for him to roll up his sleeves and get tough.

Victor

Anonymous said...

Someone wrote,

"The problem is that Cameron is to left wing. Unless the Tories are seen as a party of the right they will not win a general election."

Have you forgotten why the Tories lost the last two general elections?

Anonymous said...

Geezer writes: "" verity said...
People just don't like Cameron."

"Utter nonsense! Cameron is seen as a very likeable person, by the wider electorate"

Proof, please. Figures, stats. I want to know who likes Cameron.

I am most assuredly a right-winger, although you, a socialist, clearly, are using the phrase as perjorative. If 'out of the EU', bang the gates shut to immigration and "asylum seekers" and repatriate all those without papers, shut down the BBC with extreme prejudice, privatise the NHS are right wing aspirations, I think you will find that a huge tranche of the electorate shares them.

You must learn to understand that right wing wants to conserve freedom. Left wingers want to destroy it and develop an over-mighty government. You are easily recognised as the greater spotted leftwinger.

Madasafish said...

"You must learn to understand that right wing wants to conserve freedom"

yeah .. like invading Iraq.
Yeah.. like the Poll Tax.


two really bright right wing ideas enthusiastically followed by most Conservatives at the time.

Reality check anyone?

Geezer said...

verity said...
"I am most assuredly a right-winger, although you, a socialist,"


Men have died for lesser insults than that!

I am a right-winger, as far as the BBC would be concerned anyway, and a life-long Conservative supporter, but a realist as well. How the hell can Cameron be unpopular if he hasn't actually had the power to affect peoples lives yet and uses very friendly rhetoric. Brown and his party have given a lot of people cause to dislike them.

Verity, you're symptomatic of what has been holding the Conservatives back for a long time. Trying to win back power with very unpopular 50's empty rhetoric, will not work and has not worked.

Anonymous said...

The Conservatives have completely blown an election that was theirs to win, just as Kerry did against Bush in the US. Guess I'll have to get used to being fingerprinted like some common criminal and carrying my ID card now.

Anonymous said...

Geezer - Sorry, not familiar with '50s rhetoric.

But I want my country back. I don't want to be part of the monolithic, Sovietesque EUSSR. I don't want my country to be home to a deeply repugnant "religion" and its hordes of followers.

If you are saying, Geezer, that all the British really, really want is socialism and control and the fakery of "multiculturalism" and "climate change", why bother to have a second party? Why not just the monolithic state of Soviet dreams?

The ruling classes, including Cameron, "celebrate diversity" as long as it isn't diversity of opinion.

Sorry. Not buying it.

Anonymous said...

anonymous 5:20 - all is not lost yet.
A week is a long time in politics and I for one shall be voting for ID cards to be scrapped.

Anonymous said...

"In the May 2007 local elections Conservatives won 911 new council seats, Labour lost 505. Let's test these polls with a general election :-) "

Dave, I am sure Labour supporters were saying similar things before the 1987 election and the 1992 election - when they were posting far better results than that.

Anonymous said...

The Conservatives are never going to win an election as long as the economy performs reasonably well. It doesn't matter who is the leader in that regard.

But even Cameron, who I find is increasingly unpopular with Tory voters, could win if the economy catches cold - and it will eventually catch cold. Therefore, if Brown has any sense he will call an election as soon as possible to retain power for another 5 years before things go pear shaped and the chance is lost.

For that reason I think it would not be in the interest of the Conservative Party to win the next election as first they would be associated with an economic downturn and secondly they would win with a leader who is not a Conservative.

Anonymous said...

"In the May 2007 local elections Conservatives won 911 new council seats, Labour lost 505. Let's test these polls with a general election :-) "

what amazes me about some Tories is their absolute lack of historical perspective when it comes to opinion polls and council election results. Here's a snip from the BBC from May 2000, just 12 months before the 2001 general election...

"Tony Blair's worst fears have been realised with a devastating defeat in the English local elections.

Millions of voters delivered their verdict on New Labour just days after the third anniversary of its historic 1997 general election landslide.

And the message was clear - Labour is deeply unpopular, suffering its worst performance for around 20 years.

Meanwhile the Tories made significant gains, giving William Hague ample ammunition to claim they are on the way back.


The local results, will have wide ranging consequences for the prime minister and Labour's future.

It has been widely expected that the next general election will come in around a year's time but the local poll results may well persuade Mr Blair to hold back in the hope of a revival in his fortunes. "

Labour supporters learned after the tory massacre in 1990 that local election results mean zip....

Anonymous said...

Cameron is just way off the centre ground.

I'm looking on the Conservative website under "speeches". Nothing about prison overcrowding, immigration, schools or the economy.

The strategy of sucking up to the BBC with things about "Empowering communities" and "vibrancy of our culture" haven't worked. What most people want to know is about the key subjects of the health, education, the economy and law and order.

Kinnock was polling better than this and went on to lose an election.

When the Conservatives lose, pick Fox, and I might come back to supporting them.

Newmania said...

2b or not 2b ( Thats from Hamlet did you know ?)

Thank you, Newmania, for your epistle from the Plant Zorg

Didn`t I make that joke except with out the “hilarious” reference to ..a comic . Yes I think I did. Boring as well as smug , congratulations . Oh this is going to be fun


Meanwhile back here on Earth, Blair and Brown have been attacked on Blair's record,


Yes you did the second hand gag .No , the public odium resided with Blair , talk to people who are not interested but will vote . Look around you .You will surprised at how little they associate Gordon Brown with the last ten years . Considering he has been virtually running domestic policy it’s a great trick but its working. Most people have no conception of the power Gordon Brown has wielded in the Labour Party and his responsibility for the failures of the government especially in the reform of Public Services


If the economy has been performing well for 10 years, this cannot possible be despite the party in power.

Yes if it would have performed better , ie like every other country in the Anglo- sphere because of the growth of the world economy. Even if you do not accept this reading quite obviously in principle such a state of affairs could easily exist. Why then say something so transparently stupid ?

It's a well-recognised fact that the "hangover effect" on an economy of old policies that have been changed is two years maximum.

By whom , your gibbering Granny ? It is clear from this remark that you are playing blind man` buff and you have missed . Allow me to explain one or two things . Economies are affected by , for example , the education of the workforce , the administrative burden placed on companies and regional market distorters . All of these work far beyond a two year period .You take that figure from a half digested understanding of the way interest rates are supposed to work through the economy, perhaps you once did an O level ? . Interest rates and economic policy are not co extensive …nit . The Labour Party did not rescind the Trade Union legislation of the Thatcher period and handed Interest rates to the B of E , These good actions have staved off the consequences of the tax and ,manage instincts they retain .Additionally the left were slow to re-establish control initially . Their error has been in increasing taxes and creating an anti business environment at a low level . They think you only need big business but a lack of entry to the market eventually turns the Supply side into a Public sector at arms length . This supply side damage is what is holding the country back and starting to run us into stagflation and low Productivity




More delusions here. The EU is not breaking up, nor will it be likely to in the near future. Hate or love it, but learn to live with it: it's not going to go away.

Look back read and understand . I am well aware the EU is not breaking up . It is in fact cohered now by a Constitution in all by name and Jose Mauel Barroso obligingly described it as an Empire . The Union is breaking up and as a majority in England voted for the Conservative Party at the last election the Constitutional crisis provoked by trying to rule England with Scottish votes is a glaring weakness in the Labour project. Gordon brown is well aware of this as we can see form his bizarre commitment to Britain , an entity he cares nothing for. If the EU is so popular why is that the conspirators avoid a referendum by sleight of hand that would shame a Covent Garden pick pocket ? It is of course because they know they will lose.



No, I've seen how far this government has moved to the right--and that's the heart of the Tory problem.

Income redistribution and more serf council housing back on the agenda , Government managed expenditure from 38 % to 45 %. Whole cities employed in the Public sector , like Newcastle ( 65%) and Glasgow …nearly all . The end of progress on property owning. I `m not sure if you are six or ninety six you seem to combine ignorance and befuddlement in inventive and bizarre new way .



Why would Labour, which increasingly looks like the natural party of government with a typical GE majority of 100+ seats* want to even consider PR, or a coalition with the LibDems or any one else for that matter?

Because of the looming Constitutional crisis of their minority status in England and absence from the South . New Statesman recently reported that “ labour insiders , (and they are in Brown`s pocket) were talking about ‘when’ not ‘if ‘ ,and Brown has let it be known he is considering AV by some formula . It is not likely to be other than beneficial to him now is it ? Well ? You should take an interest in politics , perhaps read something about it . Alternatively you could keep your fatuous mouth shut . You see I do allow the options .
265 seats according to Simon Heffer is the amount the Conservatives would need to require Gordon brown to use Scottish votes to force English legislation through . This would not be possible and that fact is what guides everything he does from dividing the country into regions to considering new voting formulas . The maths are nit mine but something of the sort must be true .





“[BTW, I would not normally comment on another's grammar or spelling”

I cannot say how much I admire your attention to details .You just had to tick every single one of the boxes didn’t you . Why not take a day off from being prat tomorrow . you may find it invigorating ?

2br02b said...

Newmania:

It would be tedious and time consuming to fisk the entirety of the second farrago of nonsense this thread has been honoured to receive from your distant cosmic fastness this evening. No; tempting though that would be I shall confine myself to pointing out just one hilarious point:

In your first epistle from Zorg you tell us, The tectonic plates are shifting on Europe and the break up of the Union there are opportunities everywhere

Now in your second epistle you inform us, Look back read and understand . I am well aware the EU is not breaking up

Well, all I can say is that either these statements flatly contradict each other or one or the other has not been properly translated from Zorgish into English.

Similar mental gymnastics (or in plain English, blatant internal contradictions) are there for all to pick off who can be bothered to compare your two epistles.

The more important point about all this is that:

(1) Either you are attempting to be humorous, as I think you now claim is so when you tell us, Didn`t I make that joke except with out the “hilarious” reference to ..a comic .

Unfortunately this remark does not appear to have been translated properly from Zorgish either, as it's gibberish in English,

or,

(2) You are serious, in which case it has now been made clear to all why a Tory Party inhabited by nuts like you is doomed to ultimate oblivion on the outer reaches of the Galaxy... in such places as Zorg

[BTW 1, my entire point abut paragraphs was that their absence made comprehending your pearls of wisdom so much harder for the rest of us. Now I see you have over=reacted by going to the opposite extreme. Hey ho.]

[BTW 2 2b or not 2b ( Thats from Hamlet did you know ?): I take to mean you've only just found this out.]

Anonymous said...

Never mind, 2br02b - You're a Danish prince of a fellow!

Newmania said...

Newmania:2b etc.
It would be tedious and time consuming to fisk the entirety of the second farrago of nonsense this thread has been honoured to receive from your distant cosmic fastness this evening.


By which you mean you do not understand ,have no idea what to say ,and dare not get into a discussion with some one who quite obviously knows a vast deal more about every subject that has thus far cropped up . You are the sort of Pooterish inadequate who thinks that adopting a tone last heard amongst Edwardian nannies is the same as wit . It is not ;and while Gordon Brown may get away with the same elephantine joke umpteen times from you it’s a sort of extended Tourettes. Are you seriously under the impression you are funny ? Your poor ,poor family

The rest of the effeminate twittering fills space to no purpose . Here`s a good rule . If you have nothing to say . Say nothing. Do you understand that ? There is probably a site somewhere for people like you to cast a fastidious eye over each other’s knitting .I recommend you go there. You are not up to politics and frankly in five minutes I have wasted more time on you than you are worth.

I have a degree in English by the way . The 2b thing struck me immediately as the sort of insipid prissiness a semi educated person might think was clever . I have not been disappointed . Self love and fragile wounded pride drip from every word . In future , please don`t bother me unless you know something about the matter in hand ( you have contributed nothing). I `m too busy being bled dry by the Brown assault on the English the South , the Private sector and the family for another parasite .

2br02b said...

I have a degree in English by the way

From the University of Zorg, it would seem. Is it too late to demand your money back?

---

Keep 'em coming, you self-important ignoramus. This is fun.

Newmania said...

Have a couple of free Zorgs on me gimp,I `ve got work to do.

Anonymous said...

Well the EU may not be about to break up but the Euro is looking increasingly vulnerable to disintegration. The strains between north and south in the Eurozone are getting quite severe.