Saturday, May 17, 2008

Tories Lead by 8% in Crewe & Nantwich

I've just got word of a poll which will be released in one of tomorrow's papers (don't know which one, I am afraid) tomorrow's News of the World, which puts the Conservatives eight points ahead of Labour in the Crewe & Nantwich by-election.

Conservatives 45%
Labour 37%
LibDems 14%

Labour's smear campaign reached a new low today. See HERE.

UPDATE: New YouGov Poll in the Sunday Times puts the Tories on 45%, twenty points ahead of Labour. Details HERE.

35 comments:

Anonymous said...

As lots of people now use the Internet,why not check her out on it and produce a leaflet with all the url's so people can do their own checks for Dunwoody,no smears just what's in the public domain.

niconoclast said...

Tweedledee is eight points ahead of Tweedledumber!It is amazing what an ideological,values,principles bipass operation can do for your poll ratings isn't it?

Vox Populli said...

An excerpt from Peter Oborne's article in the Daily Mail to-day:-


"As far as I can tell, Timpson represents the best face of caring and public-spirited Conservatism.

His parents have fostered more than 80 children - inspiring him to enter a career in family law and specialising in 'the welfare of vulnerable children'.

His background is arguably less privileged than the Labour candidate, whose full name, incidentally, is Moyra Tamsin Dunwoody-Kneafsey. Indeed, she lives in an almost extensive house as Timpson, although it is 175 miles away from the constituency, in Wales.

With her late grandmother being the former government whip Baroness Phillips, she is a third-generation member of the political class - that amoral and mercenary elite which now dominates British public life.

Her grandfather, Morgan Phillips, was General Secretary of the Labour Party. In 1957, he perjured himself in court in order to win libel damages from The Spectator magazine, which had reported that he and other senior Labour politicians had drunk too much on a trip to Venice. The posthumously published diaries of the Cabinet minister Richard Crossman later showed that the magazine report was, in fact, completely true."

Anonymous said...

Hhhmmmn Labour 2 points up in the latest YouGov poll, and C and N Labour a further 4 points down since the last ICM poll there....could it be Labour's crap and nasty campaign there making all the difference.

stuart said...

Just looked at the latest Labour message on ConservativeHome, to which you link.

Whilst I think it's up to Labour whether or not they attack the family background of the Conservative candidate, actually to refer to him as a "con man" seems to cross a line.

Paul Pinfield said...

Looks like things are getting even worse nationally...

"Bad news for Gordon Brown as Tories gain 20-point opinion poll lead"

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article3953230.ece

Simon said...

For info - it's ICM for the News of the World this poll.

Adrian Yalland said...

one wonders if the poll lead isn't anything to do with the nasty little campiagn labour are fighting!

At the end of the day, people don't like being told what to do - and there is an element of 'this is a Labour constituency, we own it, so do as your told and vote Dunwoody'!

That, on top of discontent with Brown - bad mix for Labour!

Newmania said...

Worth following the link for some of the comments , like this one

"Let's see what Peter Oborne writes today about Mr Timpson and Ms Dunwoody:

"As far as I can tell, Timpson represents the best face of caring and public-spirited Conservatism.

His parents have fostered more than 80 children - inspiring him to enter a career in family law and specialising in 'the welfare of vulnerable children'.

His background is arguably less privileged than the Labour candidate, whose full name, incidentally, is Moyra Tamsin Dunwoody-Kneafsey. Indeed, she lives in an almost extensive house as Timpson, although it is 175 miles away from the constituency, in Wales.

With her late grandmother being the former government whip Baroness Phillips, she is a third-generation member of the political class - that amoral and mercenary elite which now dominates British public life.

Her grandfather, Morgan Phillips, was General Secretary of the Labour Party. In 1957, he perjured himself in court in order to win libel damages from The Spectator magazine, which had reported that he and other senior Labour politicians had drunk too much on a trip to Venice. The posthumously published diaries of the Cabinet minister Richard Crossman later showed that the magazine report was, in fact, completely true."

I find it hard to believe there are no Labour supprters who are not ashamed of this drivel simply for its brain -dead babbling infant stupidity

Tom said...

Hi Iain,

I see a YouGov poll in tomorrow's Sunday Times has the Conservatives 20 points clear of Labour in the national share of the vote.

Conservatives: 45%
Labour: 25%
Lib Dems: 15%
Others: 12%

Crewe is truly within our grasp.

Anonymous said...

What an odd campaign when it is open knowledge that Moyra Tamsin Dunwoody-Kneafsey lives on and owns a country estate in South West Wales, 200 miles from Crewe and is listed in Burke's Peerage and Gentry.

Anonymous said...

I have just filled my car with diesel at the local tesco. I hate the labour party, gordon brown and all the rest of the shower of ministers who have heaped this crap on me. I sincerly hope it all comes back to haunt them all.

asquith said...

Disappointed that Labour are still so high and the Lib Dems so low. People might say "it's a working-class area, there aren't many liberals there". But there are liberals everywhere. We should do better.

Though, as I've said (and here I flirt with treason) I would be happy if the Tories won. Though I am nationally equidistant, because Camoron and BoJo are as bad as clunking fist and Leaveinshame, I will suspend my equidistance here and prefer Conservative to Labour. I bet there'll be celebrations in the Tory blogosphere tonight now I've said that.

curly15 said...

What a load of contemptuous bilge this is. We will see how it washes with the good people of Crewe and Nantwich on Friday, I have a feeling they will it treat it with the contempt it deserves.

dirty european socialist said...

I think Peter Oborne has gone over the top. I was not a fan of the late Dunwoody but to describe her entire family as a self serving elite is offensive and OTP. He also suggest labour are the nasty party.

Well who wrote the 2005 manieftio for the tories?
Who made a offensive campaign about Ken being responsible for every stabbing in London when he was mayor and now stabbings still happen. The tories have suddenly "grown up" and recongised not every stabbibng can be blamed on the local mayor.

Who called Ken a drunk and a anti semite. Thta was offensive.

soothsayer said...

8 points ahead = complacency = labour retain seat = post mortem on Friday.

Auntie Flo' said...

Isn't Moyra Tamsin Dunwoody-Kneafsey a businesswoman?

Also, her father, Dr. John Elliot Orr Dunwoody CBE - one of the ASH busibodies who want to kill off working class people's pleasure - was a surgeon. I Wonder if he did any private work?

And she lives in a mansion?

You're hardly working class gal, Ms Dunwoody-Kneafsey. I'd keep your gob shut about toffs if I were you.

Alan said...

Soothsayer,

If the Tories were being even a little bit arrogant, they wouldn't have doubled their lead from the last time C&N was polled.

Adrian Yalland said...

Dirty european Socialist:

Ken was called a drunk and an anti-semite. He is.

The Tory candidate is called a toff and a con man. He isn't.

That's the slightly important point your post misses!

Are you saying you approve of the hypocrisy and near-racist tone of the Labour Party campaign in Crewe then? If so, you disagree with many Labour MPs who are 'uncomfortable' with it!

Auntie Flo' said...

The 1957 telephone directory for Totnes lists, a Dr John E.O. Dunwoody, Physn, living at:

The Manor House, Totnes Devon

This surely can't be the Manor House, Totnes that's been converted into 35 old people's flats....can it?

Moyra Tamsin Dunwoody-Kneafsey's biog in Wikipedia states that she was born in Totnes in 1958.

This surely cannot suggest that the toff hating Ms Dunwoody-Kneafsey was born in a bl**dy great Manor House in Devon....can it?

One of us, Ms Dunwoody-Kneafsey?

And which 'us' would that be? The Manor House dwelling rich gits?

I smell hypocrisy here.

Time to come clean, Tamsin Dunwoody-Kneafsey.

Auntie Flo' said...

Source notes for the telephone directory with Dunwoody's entry, Iain.

Portsmouth / Southampton / Bournemouth / Exeter / Plymouth Directory.

Publication Year: 1957

Directory County: Hampshire, Devon

Page Number: 81

Auntie Flo' said...

Dr John E.O Dunwoody

Physn,Manor Ho...Totnes

Bournemouth / Exeter / Plymouth / Portsmouth / Southampton Nov
Telephone Directory

Publication Year: 1958

Directory County: Hampshire, Devon

Page Number: 1077


"Moyra Tamsin Dunwoody-Kneafsey (born.....1958)" (Wikipedia)

"Dunwoody was born in Totnes, Devon, the daughter of the late Labour MPs, Gwyneth Dunwoody, and Dr John Dunwoody." (Wikipedia)


You were saying about toffs, Ms Dunwoody-Kneafsey?

Trumpeter Lanfried said...

I believe that during her long life the late member for C&N never once offered to repay the damages her father's cynical perjury had secured from The Spectator. But then The Spectator is run by toffs and Morgan Phillips was for the working class, so I guess that's all right.

dirty european socialist said...

Adrian Yalland : I do not see it as racist. Plus Ken is not a drunk or an anti semite. Why do you hate labour people so much you make claims like this. Is Boris a racist?

I do not hate the tory candidate but how is he not a toff, I see no evidence he is a conn man. But the tories have said worse on labour MP's.

Anonymous said...

It's what happens when you lose your core beliefs, your philosophical ground. Labour have nothing left to believe in, and in their silly parodies of "Tory privilege" merely effect a despairing critique of themselves.

Tom

TrevorH said...

The runes seem favourable ... if we can assume that turnout will be low in Labour areas and high in Tory ones (indeed I suspect it may be misleading to talk about 'areas' any more) then following from London experience a victory is certainly achievable.

This weekend is really the last effort that Labour front bencher's can put in so I do not detect any last minute swing back to them.

Why on earth did Labour rush this by-election so?

Adrian Yalland said...

Dirty Euro Socialist: Ken Livingstone has a long history of both association with those who are sworn to the destruction of Israel (such as Islamic mad men), as well as leftists with known anti-semite beliefs. Anti-semite comments have long been attributed to Livingstone.

IS Boris a racist - no, he is just misunderstood by people who don't get his humour!

As for Livingstone's drinking - all the times he is pissed in public, falling out of taxis and getting smashed in pubs (conferences, London, Brighton...) - they are for medicinal reasons are they - like his whisky drinking during a press conference.

I don't hate people because of their party affiliation and more then I would because of their skin colour or sexuality. But I do dislike some people intensely because of the way they live their lives and the decisions they make. I particularly dislike hypocrites.

My current list of big hypocrites includes Ken Livingstone, John Prescott and Tasmin Dunwoody.

Would you like me to list the reasons why I dislike these three people? It isn't because of the party they represent.

Anonymous said...

its all getting a bit Gormenghast isnt it?

Newmania said...

POLITICS OF ENVY

On the Politics of Envy the general case Labour try to make is that the fact of rich people makes others poor . This simply is not true and these are some salient facts


1-According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, since 1997 the people ranked as the "top 10 per cent" of earners have seen their income grow by 17 per cent in real terms. The bottom five per cent's income has risen by 13.5 per cent – again, in real terms.
In other word the rich are not getting significantly richer . Sorry Polly T

2 -.There aren't enough of the very rich to make a big difference to that equation.
Institute for Fiscal Studies produced detailed research that ratcheting up income taxes on those earning more than £100,000 would be counterproductive .The IFS calculated that the Government would maximise the revenue it collects from those earning over £100,000 by imposing a marginal rate – the additional tax paid on each pound of increased income – of 55.6 per cent. This, however, is perilously close to the current marginal rate of 53 per cent charged when income tax, national insurance contributions and indirect taxes are all included. The IFS concluded that "there is not a powerful case for increasing the income tax rate on the very highest earners, even on redistributive grounds."

3 The redistributive tax system. -According to the Government's own Survey of Personal Incomes, the top one per cent of earners receive 11.6 per cent of total pre-tax income, and pay 22 per cent of total income tax, while the bottom 25 per cent of earners receive 8.2 per cent of national pre-tax income and pay 2 per cent of the total income tax.



As the Institute for Fiscal Studies points out, if there is to be any further redistribution of income to the least well off, it will have to come not from the relatively tiny number of people at the very pinnacle, but from the vast numbers of people who are in the top half.

( D Lawson)

verity said...

Yes, let's all listen to Dominic Lawson. Brilliant idea. Let's make him Prime Minister while we're at it, and have newmania as chancellor of the exchequer. Can't think of anything that could possibly go wrong there...

soothsayer said...

alan - it was a caveat - I'm a Tory voter but I've seen the results of over-confidence before.

Let's see whether the polls are right on Friday am, shall we?

Johnny Norfolk said...

Is Boris going to Crewe He would do a power of good.

Johnny Norfolk said...

You do not make the poor rich by making the rich poor.

When will Labout ever learn.

Auntie Flo' said...

Good points, newmania.

Unquestionably, Broon and nulab have hammered countless millions of hard working people with their obscene tax and axe orgy targeted at Middle England.

Middle England's single people have it very hard too. Paul Johnson, professor of economic history (LSE), said in 2004 that a single middle class person earning a salary of £37,000 has bobbed along at 27 to 29 per cent since 1990 in terms of the amount they lose to income tax and national insurance. That percentage would be even higher now.

Broon's and nulab's snatch and grab of Middle England's pay has been accomplished through a huge swathe of ever increasing stealth taxes on hard working people, including:

Council tax rates above inflation - nulab's Middle England grab

Middle England targeted National Insurance increases

Broon's axe on Middle England's student grants

Broon's Middle England student top up fees

Vehicles and fuel taxes

Increased company car taxes

Cigarettes & booze.

Congestion charging

A punitive system of fines for everything from speeding to child truancy and murder

BBC licence fee

Residents' car parking permits.


Add to those stealth taxes soaring prices for food, gas, electricity - all greatly exacerbated by Broon's incompetent fiscal policies - and it's little wonder that hard working people the length and breadth of England are howling in pain.

The sole means of we have to express that pain is to lash out at Broon and nulab via the ballot box.

I hope the hard working people of Crewe and Nantwich will give Broon and nulab a good kicking on behalf of all of England's oppressed hard working people when they vote next week.

Auntie Flo' said...

I forgot the daddy of them all, of course, sky high house prices and mortgages.

Broon has crippled millions of hard working families with runaway house prices and effectively axed the majority of young single people's chances of buying a home of their own.

No one is fooled by Broon's crowing about his alleged success in keeping mortgage rates down while, thanks to him, the cost of the average mortgage is soaring beyond the affordability of hard working people.

Broon and nulab have recklessly stimulated a level of demand for housing which has pushed UK house prices and mortgages through the roof.

It is Broon and Nulab and their policy of encouraging a vast and unsustainable level of migration to UK which is solely to blame for our house prices rises.

Millions of young people cannot afford to buy as much as a flat and must pay extortionate rents or live with parents beyond the age when they need to live independently solely thanks to Gordon Brown.

My daughter is one of the millions of young single people who are struggling to afford their own home thanks to Gordon Brown.

She will cheer the people of Crew and Nantwich if they clobber Brown the clown for this.