Tuesday, February 17, 2009

When Did Gordon Last Meet Sir Bob Worcester?

I'm beginning to wonder if Gordon Brown has paid a recent visit to the offices of Ipsos Mori. Their latest poll shows the following...

Con 48% (+4)
Lab 28% (-2)
Lib 17% (-)

Mori often show a narrower Tory lead than other pollsters, so this is a noteworthy poll. It is also the third poll in two weeks, I think, which shows Labour on 28%. PoliticalBetting has some interesting analysis.
The MORI top-line numbers, of course, only include those 100% certain to vote and this tends to produce dramatic changes when things are going very bad or very well for a party. So in the second set of figures that the pollster issues, the shares of those naming a party, it’s C39:L31:LD19.

What the poll has not done is confirm the swing to the Lib Dems that we saw last week in the three telephone pollsters that use past vote weighting - ICM, Populus and ComRes. But MORI’s 17% share of last month has been retained. Back in November Nick Clegg’s party was getting just 12%.

    In all the polling at the moment the critical element is what the numbers will do to the internal machinations of the Labour party. It’s hard to see how 20% deficits from the firm are going to do anything other than add to the gloom and speculation about the leadership.

There will come a moment, surely, Brown’s position could come under real pressure.

Really? What fun! I think this might be some wishful thinking. Any move against Brown could not possibly come until after the June elections.

18 comments:

Chris Paul said...

So in the second set of figures that the pollster issues, the shares of those naming a party, it’s C39:L31:LD19.

There's the story Iain. And of course in the DK/WS/WV numbers and their previous too. Still silly season poll-wise.

Man in a Shed said...

@Chris Paul - too right. Labour are doing much better than this. Put your money on Labour now !

Brown is a genius and must lead Labour into the next election.

It all started in America and there's no Boom and Bust !

Mark Senior said...

Comparing this poll with the January Mori monitor , there are just 2 more Conservative voters this month and it is simply the very strict 10/10 certainty to vote filter that gives an increase in the headline Conservative vote share .
You are incorrect in saying that Ipsos Mori does not confirm the increase in LibDem support shown bt ICM/Populus/ComRes - it does . They find 18 more LibDems in the Feb sample than in Jan , again it is only the 10/10 filter that does not give a reflection in the headline figure .
The detailed data for comparison with how people say they voted in 2005 is also very much better for the LibDems in Feb than in Jan viz :-
Jan LibDems gain 24 voters from Labour but lose 9 net Plus 15
Feb LibDems gain 36 voters from Labour bur lose 13 net Plus 23 .
Jan LibDems lose 16 voters to Con. but gain 3 net minus 13
Feb LibDems lose 16 voters to Con. but gain 6 net minus 10 .
With this raw data ICM with it;s differing methodology would have a headline LibDem figure of 22 to 23 % .

Iain Dale said...

Mark, They weren't my words, they were quoted from PoliticalBetting, as I make clear in the post.

I have always found MORI methodology odd and normally don't quote their polls, as they show huge shifts in opinion. However, this one seemed, on the face of it, to be worth quoting, not just because it showed a big Tory lead, but because it showed Labour consistently on 28%.

Madasafish said...

Labour are doing well in the polls.

They still manage to attract a 28% following. For a party which is so incompetent that IS impressive.

(I am perfectly serious).
A very sticky bunch of supporters- hard to shift.

They must be trye believers.

Wrinkled Weasel said...

I hope this phase of the history of the British Isles is the nadir.

How can it get any worse?

We have quite reasonable people telling us that there are whole swathes of the country populated by adolescent parents, chavs, bastard bankers, venal politicians and a police state.

On the last point, the erosion of liberty has been highlighted this week, not by a raging Trot or that minx from Liberty, but Dame Stella Rimington. She was reacting to a report from the the International Commission of Jurists, which said: “The failure of states to comply with their legal duties is creating a dangerous situation wherein terrorism, and the fear of terrorism, are undermining basic principles of international human rights law.”

What the feck is it with this country?

What Blair/Brown has done is to use what the report calls "The War Paradigm" Essentially it is the Orwellian model of governance, which is to keep the masses under the delusion that they are in a perpetual state of war to enact extraordinary, draconian laws.

Perhaps these polls show that the masses are waking up to this, but I doubt it. It's the beer and fags that they worry about. And don't expect a revolution if the Rugby's on.

Jonathan Cook said...

It is difficult to know how to read these contrasting sets of numbers:

Tories: 48 vs 39 = +9 point gap
Labour: 28 vs 31 = -3 point gap
Liberal: 17 vs 19 = -2 point gap

From this I conclude that natural Conservative voters are highly motivated to "definitely" go out and vote, although Labour might still retain vaguely similar levels of support amongst its core vote - they just ain't going to turn out and mark X for labour when it comes to it.

Am I right in reading it that way??!

Armchair said...

Whilst we all believe that polling day will be May 2010, that has to be in doubt if these polls are supported elsewhere.

If Labour dump Brown they will be compelled by public pressure to go to the country, having changed leader twice without an election....although with this shower nothing would surprise me.

Mark Senior said...

Fair enough Iain - as I am at work computer does not allow me to access pb.com because of the bet.ing word . The 100% absolutely certain to vote filter is undoubtedly unrealistic as it implies a GE turnout of just 46% .
The poll certainly shows a loss of Labour support finding 23 fewer Labour voters in Feb than Jan many of whom would seem to have moved to the LibDems as the detailed data shows .

nought.point.zero said...

I have a question for any of you poll geeks out there. Before the US election, I very much enjoyed looking at how the polls could be applied to each state and the way in which, when predicting the total number of collegue seats, the pollsters would take into account the differences between states, which were swing states etc etc

My question is, does anyone do this with seats in the UK? I often find newspapers saying stuff like "the Tories are at 40% which translates to a 100 seat majority" - but surely such figures don't take into account the fact that you could achieve a whopping majority with a very narrow poll lead IF you spread your vote out well and, for example, won every seat by just one vote.

Anyone want to shed any light on all this?

Johnny Norfolk said...

Nothing about this on Tom Harris blog yet. i wonder why.

Geoffrey G Brooking said...

GORDON BROWN IS MY SHEPHERD, I SHALL NOT WORK.

HE LEADETH ME BESIDE THE STILL FACTORIES.

HE RESTORETH MY FAITH IN THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY.

HE GUIDETH ME IN THE PATH OF UNEMPLOYMENT.

YEA, THOUGH I WAIT FOR MY DOLE,

I OWN THE BANK THAT REFUSES ME.

BROWN HAS ANNOINTED MY INCOME WITH TAXES,

MY EXPENSES RUNNETH OVER MY INCOME,

SURELY, POVERTY AND HARD LIVING WILL FOLLOW ME ALL THE

DAYS OF HIS TERM.

FROM HENCE FORTH WE WILL LIVE ALL THE DAYS

OF OUR LIVES IN A RENTED HOME WITH AN OVERSEAS LANDLORD.

I AM GLAD I AM BRITISH,

I AM GLAD I AM FREE.

BUT I WISH I WERE A DOG

AND BROWN WAS A TREE

The Grim Reaper said...

I've repeatedly said this, and I'm going to say it again. The Tories must not assume that the next election is in the bag. (and this is coming from someone who doesn't particularly like them or New Labour) There's an air of arrogance coming from the Tory leadership on this, and Labour are going to use that against them.

Remember back in 2001? The fact is the Tories were set for another massive defeat. Yet Blair claimed that every single seat must be fought and that nothing should be taken to chance. Going back further to 1992, Labour thought they were guaranteed to win the election. In a surprise twist, Major won it. Voters do not like complacency from anyone, least of all politicians.

Bird said...

Grim Reaper

There's no air of arrogance coming from the Tory leadership. Cameron goes out of his way to say, "No complacency please."

Nice try though.

The Grim Reaper said...

Bird said "There's no air of arrogance coming from the Tory leadership. Cameron goes out of his way to say, 'No complacency please'. Nice try though."

Does he? I can't recall a single occasion when Cameron said anything of the sort. Prove me wrong.

Neil said...

"Mori often show a narrower Tory lead than other pollsters"

As I understand it, Iain, MORI are usually the pollsters that show the greatest Tory lead. I am a Conservative myself, and the last thing I want to see is complacency!

This is undoubtedly a wonderful poll for us, but we don't want to get carried away.

James Manning said...

Grim Reaper said: "Does he? I can't recall a single occasion when Cameron said anything of the sort. Prove me wrong."

Here: http://www.epolitix.com/latestnews/article-detail/newsarticle/cameron-warns-against-complacency/

Here: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2008/08/13/david-cameron-we-re-not-complacent-115875-20695216/

Here: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1550788.ece

Here:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/09/david-cameron-w.html

Here:
http://www.tiscali.co.uk/news/newswire.php/news/reuters/2008/05/13/topnews/cameron-says-winning-battle-of-ideas.html

That enough? Or would you like a few more?

The Grim Reaper said...

James Manning said "That enough? Or would you like a few more?"

Muchos gracias, senor.